First post

Hi this is a test post to assess the system.  Future posts here will detail the opinions of several prominent CT scientists and engineers  that are concerned about the alamism of the IPCC and resultant regulations of CO2.

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9 Responses to First post

  1. Scott Mandia says:

    This is a test comment. 🙂

    Jay, you should not use a 12 year T vs. CO2 plot if you are suggesting that there is a weak correlation of those two variables. Over that time scale there will never be a strong correlation. It takes a lot longer for the climate system to “catch up to” CO2 forcing.

  2. jay says:

    Scott, thanks for stopping by. The IPCC has stated that CO2 has caught up and is the primary forcing on the global temperatures since 1975. As we can see, this is not the case for the past decade.

  3. Do the plot from 1975 then. I am away from my office so I cannot do that plot from here and upload.

    Also keep in mind that there is thermal inertia and today’s warming is more likely a response to increases in CO2 from the past few decades and not just the current decade. Therefore, it is not in conflict with what the IPCC concludes.

    • jay says:

      …”there is thermal inertia and today’s warming”…

      That’s part of the problem, there is no warming today. The temperatures have leveled off.

      A heated pan will warm monotonically until the boiling point as in that case there IS only one radiative forcing. The atmoshere and ocean are much more complex than that. As proved in the past 12 years, CO2 is a small part of the system and is easily trumped by the natural world.

      • Nobody claims that natural forces influence climate change more than CO2 on short time scales such as 12 years. When one looks at the long term record, the temperature increases caused by increasing CO2 stand out like a sore thumb. Besides, there are multiple lines of evidence for AGW that cannot be explained by natural cycles.

        I still do not see how you can say temps have leveled off. Even your own plot shows warming. 2009 was tied for the second warmest year, 2005 was the warmest, and the 2000s were the warmest decade. I don’t get it?

        It is expected that 2010 will se a new record even with a mild El Nino.

      • jay says:

        So we are expected to worry about a warm period from 1975 – 1998? There is no statistical trend since 1998. Yes we are in a warm period…much like that occured in the past. We are well within the realm of natural variation. I am sure NASA GISS will make sure 2010 is very warm.

  4. Oops, for UAH it would begin at 1979. Anyway, I just did the plot and sure enough, both T and CO2 are increasing over that time but not at the same rate. CO2 is increasing faster which make perfect sense.

    Changes in emissions from humans are more rapid while global T changes are more slow to react.

    Analogy: A pan heats faster than the water in it but the water is warming. The pan is CO2 and the water is T.

  5. Scott Mandia says:

    Jay,

    There is no statistical trend since 1998 has little merit because the time frame is too short. I believe starting with 1994 gives a 95% confidence level.

    Warm periods in the past were not as warm as today and were caused by other factors. Nobody is claiming that CO2 is the only factor.

    I am also sure that UAH will show the same. UAH is even warmer for the past two months than GISS. 🙂

    • jay says:

      There is no warming trend because it hasn’t warmed further. It is not significant due to its short length. It is LIKELY that it has been warmer in the past, both regionally and globally. NASA GISS has diverged from the satellites and is consistently the warmer dataset. This causes suspicion because it is run by an activist – Jim Hansen.

      We’ll see how the more frequent La Nina’s affect the short term (and hence the long term) trend now that the PDO has shifted to its cold state. We will probably have another 20-30 years of ‘natural variation’.

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