March 19, 2010
The IPCC contends the man is primarily responsible for the warming since 1975, hence the moniker anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Prior to that, the world’s climate was dictated by natural forces. It is the contention of many ‘skeptics’ that 1)the recent warm period can be explained by natural causes and 2) the recent warm period is well within historical temperature ranges. Conversely, ‘alarmists’ claim that global warming is happening, quicker than anticipated and worse than we thought.
Our first commenter, Scott, has asked me to plot the temperatures and CO2 since 1979, which I have done below. But I also plotted the sea surface temperature anomalies. I have averaged the datasets so that they are smooth in order to see any trends clearer. From this plot, it is evident that global temperature (the green line) has a lot of wiggles in it in response to the rest of the total earth-atmosphere system, e.g., sea surface temperature (the blue line). While CO2 (the red line) goes up tirelessly. This type of graph, along with global climate models, are the proof the IPCC has put forth as proof the humans are very likely (>90% chance) that humans the cause of this warming! The IPCC wants you to ignore the recent data because it does not support their agenda and does not support the notion of unequivocal warming.
However, if you DO look at the data shows that there is NO trend in the recent warming (since 1998). Run the stats – the temperature times series is flat. This contradicts the alarmists views of increasing global warming and the need for immediate action. I acknowledge that this recent data is not yet long enough to draw firm conclusions statistically. But even the most fervent alarmists requires 15 years for a statistically significant conclusion (http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/12/15/how-long/) and we are at year 12 of 15. It seems we are on the precipice of a significant change in the recent temperature anomaly – either up, down or flat.
Any energy policy should be based on a sound and robust scientific policy. AGW does not satisfy this criteria.
March 19, 2010
One of the CTRealists, James Barrante, has published a book entitled “Global Warming for Dim Wits”. It is available at the usual on-line retailors such as Amazon and Barnes and Nobles.
Product description below:
“Human beings are not very bright. The power output of the human brain is about 40 watts, and that is indeed pretty dim. We definitely are all dim wits. This book was written for dim wits – from one dim wit to another, as they say. Its primary purpose is to address the controversy affectionately known as global warming. Written by a physical scientist with over 40 years of teaching experience, the book contains very little personal opinion, has no political agenda, and is loaded with well-documented and scientifically tested facts concerning the greenhouse gases and climate change. It contains material that you will want to share with your children. Global Warming for Dim Wits is written in simple language. Every attempt has been made to present the material in a way that the average person not trained in science will understand. It is the intent of this author that by the time you finish the book you will be convinced that: – greenhouse gases do not control the climate, the climate controls greenhouse gases – your children will understand that they are safe and the sky is not falling – climate change is a natural process that takes tens of thousands of years to occur.”
We hope to hear more from the author soon.
March 16, 2010
Although it can still snow and its not technically spring yet, for all intensive purposes the story of winter 2009-10 has been written. For those in CT, it was a season of misses for large storms and sustained cold. However, the farther south one went, the colder and snowier it became.
In fact, if one expands the view then it is obvious that many parts of the country were colder than normal with record cold along the Gulf Coast (see: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/images/divisionaltrank200912_201002.gif) . Hence the need for Al Gore to remind us that cold and snow are part of the global warming pattern!
The winter temperature and precipitation anomaly maps for New England reveal that the period December through February in CT was warmer and wetter than normal. Maps from the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
March 16, 2010
Hi this is a test post to assess the system. Future posts here will detail the opinions of several prominent CT scientists and engineers that are concerned about the alamism of the IPCC and resultant regulations of CO2.